The presidential campaign began long before 2010, and turned into a sort of war of position. And both candidates have shown strength and weaknesses. These two candidates have the following matches:
_ confronting the party-were born corrupt and for social inclusion (at least so they said)
- are held in the lower classes, mainly
- Not conveniently located in the center of ideological spectrum, one is left and one right.
- Both are among the favorites for 2011
- have seats in Congress
disciplined - Their leaders Keiko and Ollanta are charismatic leadership, as presidential candidates are stronger than their parties.
Usually the message in this type of applications (charismatic) is to combat political exclusion confronting the establishment. In this factor lies the strength and potential of both the electoral and the Humala when Fujimori came to political life. When Fujimori was born, but especially after the coup of April 5, 1992 these promises were hoisted, and people believed in these promises and endorsed.
Neither Alberto Fujimori promises have been fully met: in fact, classes are still being felt marginalized and on the other side of the political establishment (corrupt) but suffered a severe blow to 92 today has been restored. The promise of Fujimori in the early 90's simply not been fulfilled. And that's the main weakness of Fujimori to face 2011.
When the core of any political power is confronted and weakened then its electoral potential is severely compromised. And this is what happens to the Fujimori today. According to the evil of the country Fujimori was the establishment, corrupt party-was useless and had to enter a phase of national reconstruction without the vices of the 'party. The core of Fujimori (inclusion and defeat of the 'party) has been confronted with reality. If Fujimori was the promise of inclusion and the fight against the 'party, its relation to corruption and understanding (and compromise) with the ruling APRA is the opposite to that promise:
With Humala the matter is different. His promise is the same for all charismatic leadership: the inclusion of the majority and defeat the exclusive factor: the 'party. But has not yet been confronted and defeated the core of his promise. Its leader, Ollanta Humala, has not yet come to power. As yet no one can tell who has betrayed the working classes since they continue to confront the ruling APRA party-and Peru. Therefore, the core of his promise to be kept intact. And this marks its electoral potential ahead to 2011. What we have seen in recent years is an attack not because Humala has lowered their flags but it has kept.
While not "hurt" the symbolic heart of the charismatic candidate does not greatly weakened, while the core of the application "anti" is not attacked and defeated in its "center" resurgence capacity is intact.
But Fujimori's promise is not fulfilled even though 10 years had the power does not automatically mean defeat, but its weakness. Similarly, the fact that humanism has not been defeated in its symbolic and political center does not automatically mean victory, but expresses its potentiality. Fujimori can happen is the one who enters the second round and not Humala, Why?
"Why today is Keiko Ollanta about 20 and about 12% in voting intention?? I think for two reasons: Keiko has better press Ollanta and secondly, the fact that Keiko depoliticized a snare with his constituents while Ollanta politicized in a relationship with their constituents. A section of the voters of the middle classes and are more easily attracted by non-political issues (Singing and dancing, announcements such as "death penalty for rapists, general bickering, etc.).
For politicians it is easier to reach the working classes through the apolitical and not necessarily the policy itself. This would be met especially in "normal" situations. For as the campaign progresses, and that politics is entering a social happening than a sector of the working class will politicized and tend to claim and radicalization. When this happens (end of February, March) then Ollanta But you could grow enough to go to the 2nd round? Hard to say, easier Humala is the understanding that it will not get anything out of moderation. It has all the center-left and the political left his audience almost exclusively. If you wasted by the siren songs of the right have wasted an opportunity to try the 2 nd round.
As you enter the final stretch of the campaign Ollanta claim should influence the demands of the marginalized and excluded without neglecting matters of state. You may need more radical to try to co-opt the votes of rural and marginal urban areas, the crossfire of the favorites may make things easier. Try to restore to the people the features that was born to politics: opposition radical neo-liberal establishment (and candidates), fight against corruption, radical change in the economy, opposition to the APRA government, defense of people's everyday economics, inequality and poverty, protection of natural resources, etc. . That is all that has been advocating in recent years. In addition to expanding their contact with people by non-political. There is always a voting sector that will not be able to get through political means, must tend to them non-political alternative, without falling into the farandulización of his candidacy, of course. Keiko
meanwhile, should definitely exploit their proposals as the subject security (which can be strengthened if there are high-profile cases related to security), also Peru still macho to elect a woman has to relate to strength. Keiko good strategy of linking his candidacy to this topic. The theme of the death penalty against rapists will also revenues, and that from now until April 9 would not be surprising still see cases of this type. In terms of political and electoral returns have not lost strengthen their arrival to the voters rather than political means (music, cumbia, gifts, etc), the negative would be to exaggerate. The fact that you need only ¼ of votes of the total votes to pass the 2 º round ago that this way of relating to the popular classes is profitable for Keiko. However, Keiko should not neglect that should be getting more serious issues as the campaign heats up in a moment because people will be apt to listen to policy proposals, especially in March. Keiko did not take as Ollanta presenting his deputies or his list to Congress should not waste the opportunity to make a good technical team of government and a cool finish campaign (against Toledo and against the government of Alan Garcia.) Can you?
Best Regards, Edson
Baldeón
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