This article aims to try and figure out how the field has been drawn election (the court) of these general elections in Peru, and from there to draw an outline of those who come to the 2nd round and why.
To outline my hypothesis, and simplifying, I will use an outline of a figure: two playing fields in which candidates would play the game of the current season. A first try of the court is made up of large communicating vessels communicated to all candidates together. On the other hand, a second field, formed by two communicating vessels between the two types of applications: those represented by Toledo and Castaneda, on the one hand, and consists of Ollanta and Keiko on the other side. latter would be the most important. Thus begin the explanation of this court.
All candidates are communicating vessels together, and everything depends on when one falls for the others, including the alleged political antagonist pick it loses the fallen. But apart from this tangle of communicating vessels between all candidates with each other, there would be a kind of two communicating vessels between Castaneda and Toledo, on the one hand, and between Ollanta and Keiko on the other.
These two communicating vessels in these elections opened a kind of two semifinal matches. The first game is played by Alejandro Toledo and Luis Castillo, only one of them would pass to the final (2 nd round). The other semi-final would play Ollanta and Keiko (one of them should stand in the way and the other through to the final (2 nd round).
Toledo seems to have given a mortal blow to Castro to the point that now the former mayor appears with few possibilities. The toughest match of these two would become the semi-finals to be played between Keiko and Ollanta. And here comes the detail. At first glance it seems that Keiko would be the favorite. But it is not so simple and should be look beyond the obvious. For apart from these two large communicating vessels there would be another court, a second scenario that would give the key to Ollanta Humala in the 2 nd round: it is a tangle of communicating vessels that have nothing to do with political affiliations of candidates marked the two semifinals. This tangle of communicating vessels allows someone like Ollanta votes castañeda remove and Toledo, and even a PPK. This is an area that belongs to the world of politics but the world of life. And it's the moments that mark the campaign, key moments and weigh weigh in due course. The caller would tangle in the "strategic opportunity" his most salient factor analysis. I explain it with an assertion.
The assertion is: Ollanta collect the votes that are leaving Castañeda Toledo and which would not be possible in the 1 st pitch of the two communicating vessels.
sometimes political affinities would have in this case unless other factors. For example it has been demonstrated in a society with socio-political conditions such as Peru that when a candidate drops is not necessarily better suited candidate who collects the most votes but its pointers, and pointers into more easily harvested which are on the rise. So if people go away from Castaneda those who can not harvest more but Humala Keiko and Toledo and Toledo, but as of Fall Toledo is also the favored could be Humala and PPK. Why? I think it is due to the time that fall, when they lose the points. At that time people turn around and manages to see the most notorious (which is on the rise) is not necessarily politically more akin to the fallen. remember the experience of Alex Kouri fall and rise of Susana Villa in the last election campaign as illustrative to plot this figure. The percentage of the capitalization of the lost votes would depend on the intensity of the fall, but above all the intensity that are capitalizing on the rise. For this reason I believe the mainstream media to put in display PPK just when someone was needed to capitalize on the establishment votes left by others. PPK has not been a showcase as it has been these past two weeks Ollanta has already been a couple of points more than today's figure. But the media do not have all of them, so if their efforts are notorious paradoxical results can give to them (Cuarto Poder last Sunday gave the top 3 podium: Toledo, Keiko and Castañeda, and interviewed PPK. In practice this censorship meant the candidacy of Ollanta was, to be exact who had grown more in the polls at that time. I'm talking about last Sunday).
And as you can see, the second factor in this second course are the media, because they are the ones that intensify (And sometimes create) the election by the time spent by candidates.
But all is not rosy for the major power groups, PPK is a major obstacle has not been questioned as a strong candidate, has only been questioned so far as a candidate "butter" or superficially. Add to that their growth is supported only by Lima and large cities (urban areas only has 2%) and the fact that his arrival would be highly stratified (in Section D / E skirts just 5% while the A is almost 30%) is easy then to understand that this globe (PPK) will be played in the coming weeks. The two blunders of PPK: cutting Vacation and opinion of the earthquake in Japan have not yet been measured. So PPK has not yet passed the "dark alley" who have gone Toledo, Keiko and Ollanta. I sincerely believe that not resist.
It said, and as a logical consequence of my argument in this second course (the tangle of communicating vessels) play better the least AntiVir. And here's the key to the candidacy of Ollanta. As I explained recently why so strenuous work of national and international strategists who have worked to lower the antivoto Ollanta, giving even more importance to the intention to vote. The result of the work of the Peruvian-Brazilian has been a noticeable outcome in favor of the candidacy of Ollanta: The antivoto Ollanta has fallen significantly (approx. 29 points) and time runs along only 25% and continued to fall. This, plus the fact that it is the only candidate contrary to the economic model can give the key to advancing to the 2 nd round. Meanwhile
Keiko has also worked on antivoto, but their dedicated work was not consistent with two key moments: the formation of their presidential ticket and the preparation of candidates for Congress Fuerza 2011. Keiko lost there. And if you lose your pass to the 2nd round would be for these terrible blunders. For this reason the candidacy of Fujimori sentenced daughter hanging by a thread. Static as is found in a great ocean by the waves which now have begun to shake from the national stores.
According to my hypothesis the effects of these two communicating vessels (which have drawn the electoral court) would make it possible for Ollanta Humala Alejandro Toledo and move to the second round.
And what would happen in a second round? It is likely that both are defeated Ollanta keiko as the 2 nd round by Alejandro Toledo. But let us not forget that no survey can at present see how to solve the 2 nd round surveys for measuring trends, and the only measurable trend now is that of the 1 st round. The 2 nd round represents a rearrangement (ie a break with the trend) and therefore a second time than the first. So it can not be measured at this time, or at least political science would support not valid.
not forget that the 2006 survey, measured on the 1 st lap but on the 2 nd round, indicated that both Alan and Lourdes was going to give soul to Ollanta (the entire center-right and right together against cuckoo ), for 20 or 25 points. And look, they were just 5 points difference over Alan, and the most serious analysts say that Lourdes had lost to Ollanta in a 2 nd round. So the polls today as to who would win a 2nd round between Toledo and Ollanta has a value: Zero (0). And that history would not be so interesting because you never know for sure what will happen by June. Greetings.
Best Regards, Edson
Baldeón
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