Why Ollanta Humala could become the next president of Peru?? Let
. According to the survey Ýpsos-support Ollanta Humala would have 42% and 36% Keiko. But if one takes into account only be counted as valid votes Ollanta Humala officially we have 54% and 46% Keiko. Keiko Humala wins in all regions of Peru, except in Lima. Beats in the north of the country 39% vs 36%, South 53% to 23% in the East 45% vs 38% and in the center of the country 48% vs 34%. By socioeconomic status, Ollanta Humala wins in the C, D and E while Keiko only win in the A, and B is a dead heat. There would also be a dead heat in the E. If one takes into account only the valid votes Ollanta Humala would be with the 8-point lead in the 1st round: 54% to 46% of Keiko.
Given these figures as proven is what analysts had advanced: Ollanta Humala has more scope and more leeway than Fujimori. Moreover, Ollanta continues to maintain these advantages well exploited to the advantage can be extended. Now with the help of important strategic allies such as Mario Vargas Llosa, Alejandro Toledo liberal journalists are slowly preferring to give critical support to the nationalist leader, which in turn will expand its room for maneuver. While Keiko will also receive their props: Alan García, Juan Luis Cipriano, Kuckzinski, which do not necessarily extend the range of motion of China.
We have witnessed how Ollanta Humala is adding a number of renowned personalities while Keiko has no equivalent counterpart. It is known that the day that Ollanta Humala is supported by dozens of intellectuals, technocrats, artists, etc. Keiko Kina is supported by more signs that declared itself neutral. And while Ollanta Humala is supported by our Nobel Mario Vargas Llosa, Keiko in turn is supported by Bishop Cipriano. These things leave an imprint on the campaign.
On the other hand, Ollanta Humala wins Peru's intellectual and professional advisers and especially A1 election campaign strategists. Keiko rather not have these assets, at least not the level it does have the nationalist leader.
We also have the fact that Peru is not always won by the candidate who won the 1 st round, but ALWAYS WON THE CANDIDATES WHO STARTED BACK outpacing the 2 nd. If we survey the 2 nd round, all that have taken place in Peru since its inception in the 80, there was no turning, no strong shift, which had always won the initial advantage. That's Fujimori in 1990, which was passed in the 1 º MVLL around, but started the 2nd round with the wind in their favor. (See Support survey that date) Toledo in 2001, also began the 2 nd lap lead over Alan Garcia in 2006 and continued until the end. Similarly, Alan Garcia who lost the 1st round 2nd round started with an advantage over Ollanta Humala and kept it until the end. Ie all the candidates who started ahead in the 2nd round held it until the end. This time is Ollanta Humala who appears to outpace its rival at the start of the 2 nd round.
Finally, Peru has a tradition that those who whites always vote no or are between 10 and 15%. So the votes at stake is only about 10%. 10% of that Keiko would have to win game more than 7% if you want to defeat Ollanta Humala, which is very unlikely, because the evidence rather indicate that it is easier for Ollanta takes most of that percentage. Appear pointer makes it attractive to a segment of the undecided independent of any consideration. It also has more votes in the poll remote Support (+ 15% advantage in the rural area) which would indicate that there are some votes that polls do not make visible, as in the 1st round. And finally, fans of Keiko (Alan, Cipriani, Martha Chavez, Rafael Rey, multinational mining, Opus Dei) will have to do something better than just a dirty war. It was announced that Keiko fans are preparing a series of bells dirty, some more false than others. Just amuses me to think that some people believe the smear campaigns always work, that things are linear, and that what they do they will give results as if opponent was maimed, blind or lame, or as if there were a context that the opponent could use it on their behalf and for their purposes. No learning!
0 comments:
Post a Comment