Why lose Lourdes Flores??
Within a few days will be discussed why the rise of Susan and begin to discuss why lose (again), Lourdes Flores. At this point in the campaign, the potential variables have already made their appearance and dynamics are key to light. The cards are on the table.
If the polls are a scientific discipline and if they say the truth then the campaign to Lima and would have ended. If we consider that -According to the survey of IOP-PUCP the difference that separates Villa de Flores (to a point margin of error), the rapid growth of the core vote of Villa (from 4 to 23% in just one month), antivoto strong growth of Lourdes Flores (from 34 to 45% in a month), the entry of Susana Villaran forcefully in all socioeconomic strata (including the D / E has quadrupled its intention to vote in the last month, 18% do not know yet but soon will know and which surely will bring more votes to Lourdes, the effect of "wasted vote" that will benefit most Susana Villar to Lourdes, and the tendency of these two candidates in recent weeks, and with three weeks and it can be concluded tentatively that the campaign would have ended, at least in terms of the projection of the main variables. All cards are on the table.
What happens from now on only be the culmination of the prolongation of the variables that are already operating. There is no way that the polarization between Lourdes Flores Susana Villaran and disappears. There is no way that the third arises. Final strikeout of radical change by the JNE and the debate between the candidates hardly alter the general board projected. Followed current trends would beat Lourdes Villarán even more 5 points to Lourdes Flores and taking into account the limitations of the "vote of the ombudsmen" or the table can change the outcome. The chips are moved, and there is a check to the queen could not evade. In other words, the campaign and would theoretically finish. Lourdes Flores is unable to redirect the projected variables against which inevitably reach in the coming days. And almost always the winner or the winner in this case would not be a favorite of the start of the campaign. Peru is well.
The second question, the first left him for another article-is lost again Why Lourdes Flowers?? I can summarize the defeat of Lourdes Flores in 7 factors.
1) The implosion of the bid Kouri and bad campaign "egg." Kouri had too many enemies and weaknesses as enough video of Montesinos and tolls.
2) The issue Cataño crushed by opponents and journalists as Jaime Bayly. Receive hundreds of thousands of dollars from an accused drug dealer was important for the fall of Lourdes Flores, especially after the taint of Kouri. Excluding the "greater evil" what sense would continue backing the "lesser evil"? Many proponents of Lourdes Susana migrated to town, after the exclusion of Kouri, something Lourdes strategists never anticipated.
3) The initial approach of the campaign of Lourdes taking into account only so that Kouri was dislocated when he was excluded from electoral competition, and the fact that Lourdes is the same to be added to the dirty war against Susanna to put "buts" to audit the management of Castañeda, and fatal, that the fall of Kouri proportions are wrong: relating to his opponent with subversion and violence. The fatal error was that the lie against a backdrop of revolution in the media could not function.
4) Susana Villaran's charisma, his honest image and moderate, and strong team of municipal government, and also the fact that it is the only progressive candidate in this campaign. All anti-establishment forces advocating his candidacy.
5) The role of intellectuals and influential journalists who supported it: almost all intellectuals showed sympathy for Villarán and rejected the dirty war against contributing to the "boomerang effect." César Hildebrantd, Mirko Lauer, Alberto Adrianzen, Sinesio Lopez, Santiago Pedraglio, Rosa María Palacios, Nelson Manrique, Augusto Alvarez Rodrich, Antonio Zapata, Rocio Silva, Pedro Salinas, etc.
6) The counter-campaign against dull Susana Villaran Aldo whose greatest exponents M (with its cover along with Abimael Villarán) and Chichi Valenzuela (with their crude photomontages) helped greatly in the dissemination of the nomination Villarán at a crucial time, just drop and when Kouri undecided voters began to be interested in seeking any nominations. Better, impossible.
7) The continuing search for the new part of the electorate. Political instability stems largely because it is not adequately represented, progressivism is sidelined and the other part is simply excluded. So that in recent weeks, these pockets of votes opt for the anti-establishment generally, and there Lourdes has everything to lose.
In my opinion, the alternative to victory for Lourdes Flores are really minimal, and are extra-political side: A dirty war and the intense control of the "votes of the ombudsmen." But this alternative is extremely risky for you and for democracy, especially when you consider that the gods seem to have left her or she just said: "I see my life are about birds of ill omen."
Greetings. Edson
Baldeón
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